I concur. Before last Thursday’s game, I estimated that they would have to go 14-6 for the remainder in August and 22-7 the rest of the way. I think the 14-6 is realistic, while the 22-7 record might be tough. If they can do this, it will give them 95 wins which is more than what they need. They probably only need 93, so a 20-9 record after 9/1 might be sufficient.

It goes without saying, that Johnson needs to be lights out and Mussina needs to be just a little bit better (no more 5th inning meltdowns ala Cleveland). If two pitchers of Chacon, Wright or Leiter give them quality starts, this might be achievable. And the way Chacon is pitching it’s really either Wright or Leiter that needs to come through (Small can fill in for the guy who doesn’t keep pace). No more “brain freezes” by Torre (like bringing the infield in when it’s the 4th inning in a game and there is no quality pitching to be found. It’s one thing if it’s Pedro vs. Randy, it’s another when the game looks like a slugfest against the Texas Rangers, but I digress).