Interesting thoughts.  Here is my opinion as to the probability on each of the ten issues raised.  On a scale of 1-10, with 1 being no chance like a snowball in July and 10 being absolute metaphysical certitude. 

10.  A-Rod falling flat on his face.  About a “3.”  Possible, but regular seasons are not his problem generally.  In a supposed “bad” year he still drove in 121 RBIs.

9.  Yanks start badly and Torre gets fired (celebrate- just kidding).  Equipoise.  About a “5.”  I really don’t know what would happen if they went 11-19 again. I can see both sides of the coin on this one.  It’s a total wild card. I don’t know if Swindal and Cashman could save him from a bad start with this team.  I wouldn’t root for Torre to be fired (because that would be uncertainty), but at the same time I don’t know if the season goes in the dumper either.

8.  Dice K is for real, Beckett gets a clue and Schilling pitches for a contract.  About a “2″ for all three happening.  It goes up to a “6″ for 2 of the 3 happening.  And a “4″ for only one happening.  Specifically on Dice K it’s about a “4.”  Closer to the truth is probably this.  Dice K gets off to a good start first time through the league, then comes back down to Earth once guys talk and study the tape and see him once.  Beckett is probably mediocre and not as bad.  And Schilling will probably be very ordinary at best.  He looks terrible right now and unless a 40 year old is dedicated to keeping himself in shape all year round (see Clemens) it is tough for him to do so during spring training and the season.  

7.  Devil Rays and Blue Jays.  About a “1.”  Almost no chance of both being a problem.  Devil Rays have no ptiching after Kazmir and the Blue Jays have health issues.  It goes up to a “7″ if you tell me the Yanks will have trouble with the Devil Rays or (not both) the Blue Jays become dangerous.  But both happening, that’s a “1.” 

6.  The 1st baseman is an automatic out.  “10.”  The definition of “absolute metaphysical certitude” but not fatal to the club’s chances.

5.  Clemens signs and is a bust.  About a “7.”  I can definitely see this happening.  After all the posturing, and cat and mouse, Clemens ends up in NY and makes us think fondly of Randy Johnson, but the Yankees make excuses for him because he’s Roger Clemens and he is discussed more frequently on the Roundtable than A-Rod.

4.  Scott Proctor’s 2006 was an illusion.  About a “3.”  In my opinion, Scott Proctor is for real (in the movie voiceover guy’s voice).  OK, ok, I’ll say it.  Scott Proctor should be the next Yankees closer.

3.  Either Jete, A-Rod or Posada go on the DL for an extended period.  Chances of A-Rod and Jeter going down – together, no chance, one of them it goes up to a “3.”  Posada going down for an extended period, probably a “6.”  But that’s not fatal.  It probably means first base needs to be re-examined.

2.  Mo is mortal.  About as likely as me complementing Torre.  No shot.  There has been no indication from last season that he would be mortal.  You might see a slight drop off, or he may get hurt, but as long as Torre treats him like an expensive italian sports car, I think we’ll be o.k. 

1.  Wang, Pettitte or Mussina go down for an extended period.  About an “8.”  This is likely to happen, I’m preparing everyone now.  This is baseball.  Pitchers get hurt.  Chances are one of these guys are going to spend time on the DL.  I think the Yankees can do without Mussina for an extended period.  They can probably be o.k. without Pettitte in the beginning of the year, but to go without Wang, that would be tough.

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