Opening Day Roster Challenge
by Mike TOk here’s my crazy predictions (guaranteed not to happen). Also guaranteed to excite John B like a teenage boy on Prom night because they involve ridiculous trades and spending like drunken sailors. Without further adieu.
Trades
Matt Holliday – Acquired in 3 way trade with Colorado and Seattle. Matsui to Seattle for Ryan Rowland Smith, Rowland Smith and Cano and Kennedy (or another prospect) to Colorado for Holliday.
Mike Cameron – Acquired from Milwaukee for Cabrerra and Betemit
Jake Peavy – Acquired from SD for Hughes and Austin Jackson
Free Agent Acquisitions
CC Sabathia
Mark Texiera
Orlando Hudson
Adam Dunn
Rotation
CC Sabathia (L)
Jake Peavy (R)
Joba Chamberlain (R)
Chein Ming Wang (R)
Andy Pettitte (L)
Lineup
1. Damon (DH) (LF occasionally) L
2. Jeter (SS) R
3. Rodriguez (3B) R
4. Texiera (1B) S
5. Holliday (LF) R
6. Posada (C) S
7. Nady (RF) R or Dunn (RF) L
8. Hudson (2b) S
9. Cameron (CF) R
Bullpen
Rivera
Coke (L)
Marte (L)
Bruney (R)
Britton (R)
Ramirez (R)
Veras (R)
Bench
Dunn
Molina
Gardner
Ransom
Damon is the spare part in this lineup/team. I would look to move him in season shift the Jeter to Lead off and move Hudson to the two hole and let Dunn/Posada split the DH duties and get Molina in the game more often. Leave Aceves in the Minors to start the season.
2 comments November 06 2008 3:58 pm | Mike T | Discussion, Predictions |
Ohh yes…this is what I’m looking for….you know me well.
Adam Dunn is going overboard. I like Holliday, but his numbers outside of Coors Field may be an indicator that he has Vinny Castilla-itis.
I didn’t think my trades were all that crazy. But, I didn’t realize how much Cano’s value has dropped. I’m not sure he could even net Matt Cain anymore.
The interesting thing about Holliday (as pointed out by nomaas.org) is that his numbers outside of Coors are also impacted by the fact that he plays 27 of the 82 road games at hitter unfriendly parks (Petco, Dodger Stadium, and AT&T Park). Here’s what they wrote:
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While he has mashed at Coors, his career OPS on the road is only .803. But the career numbers don’t tell the whole story.
First, the 28-year old outfielder plays an unbalanced schedule in three parks that are brutal to right handers (Petco, Dodgers Stadium, and AT&T Park) and has increased his road OPS every year since his rookie season, improving to .892 in 2008. His road OBP has also improved every season, including a stellar .405 this year.
Need more evidence of Holliday’s improvement on the road? Let’s a take a look at IsoD/IsoP (Isolated Discipline/Isolated Power) numbers when he is not in Colorado:
04: .047/.127
05: .057/.160
06: .053/.205
07: .073/.184
08: .097/.178
His power numbers at Coors may have turned him into an MVP candidate, but there is no reason to believe he will not be a valuable hitter away from Coors, especially if he maintains his improved pitch selection. We struggle to see what the home/road splits can add to the park-adjusted statistics, which indicate that Holliday is still one of the best hitters in the game.
We also have to consider what Holliday brings in defense, where he has posted a top-5 zone rating every year he has been in the league. And given his hard-nosed, grinding, “play the right way attitude”, we could even give him Paul O’Neill’s number and not worry about him having to dodge batteries.
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His acquistion could be interesting.