Not that it matters that much (because the Yankees have at least 7 above average hitters in the lineup), but Beyond The Boxscore has an interesting article detailing the optimal lineup for the Yankees (and Twins and Mets).  The basic theory of lineups, according to them is….

Take the top three hitters and put them in the #1, #2, and #4 spots, with the player least reliant on homeruns first, the player with the highest relative OBP second, and the player with the best power fourth.

The outs for the #5 hitter are much more costly than those in the #3 slot.  Result?  The #5 hitter should be better than the hitter in the #3 slot.   That sounds weird, right?  The reason is that the #3 hitter gets a lot more plate appearances with two outs than the #5 batter.  So, he has less chance to do damage, unless that damage is done with the homerun.

According to Beyond the Box Score, the best three hitters are “ARod, Teixeira, and then, well, a lot of possibilities.”   Because a lot of Tex Value comes from his OBP, as opposed to HR being a big part of ARod’s value, they propose hitting him 2nd and ARod hitting 4th.  Nick Swisher (who they like better than Nady) hits a lot of homeruns, so they favor Jeter (who’s value is not tied to HR) for the leadoff spot. 

While Jeter’s a few runs worse than Matsui and Posada, his baserunning likely makes him just as valuable overall, and a better option for the lead-off position.  If the hitting gap were larger, leading off with Matsui wouldn’t be all that crazy.  For now we have Jeter — Tex — XXX — ARod.

The next two best hitters are among Swisher, Matsui, and Posada, all similarly productive.  Matsui and Posada are quite similar, and the best use of Swisher would be in the #3 hole, as he’s a low-AVG, high-HR guy.  Matsui will go fifth and Posada sixth, in order to avoid two lefties back-to-back based on Cano and Damon coming up, leaving Jeter — Tex — Swisher — ARod — Matsui — Posada right now.

Now we’ve got Cano and Damon.  Cano projects as a slightly better hitter, although Damon’s the better baserunner.  It’s a crapshoot whether you want the slightly better hitter first or the good baserunner ahead of a singles hitter.  Gardner rounds out the order, based on spring rumors, although CHONE actually projects Melky to post the better line in 2009:

  1. Jeter
  2. Teixeira
  3. Swisher
  4. ARod
  5. Matsui
  6. Posada
  7. Damon
  8. Cano
  9. Gardner

In addition to starting against lefties, Nady should see plenty of pinch hit appearances when the opposing team brings in their LOOGY to face the three lefties at the bottom of the order.  A simple weighted average of runs per 150 puts the Yankee lineup at 120 runs better than average, thanks in part to eight out of nine spots projecting as above-average hitters.