In terms of Wagner’s effectiveness for this year, I say marginal to somewhat-below-marginal.  I don’t think he’ll be awful, but I don’t think they will be able to rely on him either.  The interesting thing is arbitration.  Do the red sox want to chance getting stuck with him at a high price tag (especially if his performance is below marginal)? Maybe they count on him not wanting to be a red sock, and therefore get the picks.  It’s risky.  The only way I see this working out great for the sox is if he pitches fantastically.  Then they get the benefit of a lights out reliever down the stretch and afterwords he will want to test the free agent market to get more money.  I just don’t see it happening this way.